Sector
Investment Analysis and Valuation of the Cannabis Industry
The Latest Sector Information
Weedmaps, Q2 Review & Updated Model
Premium members can read our analysis on the Q2 2021 results from WM Technology, formerly known as Weedmaps. This article also includes an updated working model with capital structure, valuation, client counts, and more.Weedmaps reported 2Q21 and the results were...
MAPS: Cannabis exposure for Tech/Growth Investors via a high-margin cash-generating pricing power story
Free Members can read actionable insights from a re-initiation on WM Technology, including a company overview with catalysts, valuation, value proposition, and more. Premium members have access to a detailed model with financials, guidance, valuation, client counts,...
Actionable Florida Insights on Pricing Strategies and Market Share
The weekly Florida review includes a working model with price checks of every operator’s flower, pre-roll, vape, edibles, and concentrate products, the weekly discounting trends, market share analysis, and all OMMU data. This review is based on the August 6, 2021...
Actionable Florida Insights and Pricing/Discounting Data
The weekly Florida review includes a working model with price checks of every operator’s flower, pre-roll, vape, edibles, and concentrate products, the weekly discounting trends, market share analysis, and all OMMU data. This review is based on the July 23, 2021 OMMU...
ParentCo PIPE in Glass House Terminated
ParentCo's $50 million investment in Glass House, which included a biomass purchase offtake agreement and cross-retail agreement, was "terminated by both parties". Premium Member can read our take on this below, following up on our reports on the Parent Co from May 18...
Creating Profitable Cultivations
Colin spoke with David Mantey of the Cannabis Equipment News to discuss ‘how to invest in, budget for, and create a profitable strategy in cultivations.’ The meat of the conversation starts at 8:30. ...
California Cultivation Supply, Trends & Forecast (Article 2 of 2)
In our last article, we quantified the supply of cannabis in California while highlighting the potential for new supply in the next 18-36 months. The supply-demand calculations were based off a top-down analysis. In this article, we sharpen the estimates for current...
Target Valuations & Actionable Insights in Weedmaps’ 1Q21
Premium Members can read actionable insights from Weedmaps’ 1Q21 results, our take on valuation and targets, and download a quarterly model below. This analysis follows up on our previous reports on Weedmaps / Silver Spike Acquisition Corp (SSPK) from May 10 for...
California Cultivation Supply, Trends & Forecast (Article 1 of 2)
As cultivation continues to expand across California, the question is asked: When will there be too much capacity? Despite the endless amount of nuances within this answer, below is our attempt to forecast the supply and demand dynamics of California. Included in this...
Harvest: The Not-So-Obvious reasons CEO White is Selling to Trulieve
This was previsouly exclusive to Premium Members until August 8, 2021, when it was published to Free Members. Why is Harvest selling to Trulieve? Or more accurately, why is CEO Steve White selling to Trulieve, since his is the only vote that matters given that his...
Trulieve-Harvest: A Big Deal for them, Not the Rest of the Industry
This was previsouly exclusive to Premium Members until August 8, 2021, when it was published to Free Members. We think the deal is transformative for Trulieve and Harvest and their major shareholders, but it means little for the rest of the industry, and the focus on...
Cultivation En Vogue, Thoughts on Vertical Integration & Comp Tables Priced 5/14/21 & 5/17/2021
Premium Members can download our pro forma in-the-money diluted comp tables below. Cultivation is in vogue At this point in the industry, most operators need to own most pieces of the supply chain because there isn't a consistent, robust, and reliable supply...
The Parent Co 1Q21 Earnings: What you need to know
The Parent Co reported Q1 2021 earnings, and here’s what you need to know. We had expected the company to reset their aggressive guidance to the downside while using organic integration and M&A to prove the incremental margin opportunity of their “house of brands”...
Weedmaps, An Update to the Illicit Retailer Listings
This article provides an updated model and commentary to our January 27, 2021 analysis of Weedmaps (linked here), specifically the risk from unlicensed illicit market clients in the revenue mix operating under the “CBD Only” moniker. It was published to Free Members...
The Parent Company – A compelling opportunity, minimized by overpromise and dilution.
This article was first published to Premium Members Only, and became available to Free Members on July 21, 2021. The model download remains Premium Member Only. This report includes detailed financial and operational analysis, and a working model. The model includes...
Dutchie’s Consolidating Retail Software – How this affects SSPK, KERN, HLIX, and others.
This article includes market share data across the retail software stack, an analysis of data value, key strategies of top players, and the impact of new capital and consolidation on the sector's public and private companies. Last week, cannabis retail technology...
Investors Won’t Pocket 280E Taxes; CEOs Will Invest for Growth
This is part of our series “What investors are missing.” In these articles, we highlight contrarian trends, forecasts, and observations from first-hand experience working with US cannabis operators and institutional investors. Removing 280E taxes would be a big...
280E Tax Primer
If you don’t know what 280E is, this is a high-level "what investors need to know" summary of IRS Code 280E. Any cannabis investment thesis that includes federal legalization will need to consider tax and margin changes without 280E, since legalization eliminates it...
Curaleaf Enters Europe & 4Q2020 Earnings Review
Curaleaf reported their Q4 2020 and FY2020 earnings after the bell yesterday. As of late/early Wednesday, there is still no MD&A filing, so all data is from their press release and conference call. What you need to know: Ahead of earnings, Curaleaf announced the...
Tax Audits Coming to CA Benefit Strong Retailers, Pressure Wholesalers
John Schroyer over at MJBizDaily published a great article about increasing tax audits coming to California on cannabis retailers and cultivations, as the state looks for additional sources of revenue. This will have varying implications for operators in California,...
What investors Are missing: Will your favorite MSO scale with the industry?
This is part of our series "What investors are missing." In these articles, we highlight contrarian trends, forecasts, and observations from first-hand experience working with US cannabis operators and institutional investors. The Top US operators Are Not The Same The...
Pigs get Slaughtered: Sundial Trades more than Facebook?!?
There is an old saying that "bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered". If you're fat on meme stocks, congratulations, you better get out now before you're bacon. Tilray has increased 148% since last Friday, giving the pro forma Tilray-Aphria...
What investors are Missing: 2021 is The year of wholesale
2021 is up against tough retail comps. Look for wholesale to shine this year.
Weedmaps S4 Update: Unlicensed Risks, CBD Upside, New Model
Updated analysis and Excel model looking into additional risks from the January 19 S4 filing.
MJBizDaily: Weedmaps’ Revenue Growth Model
My article for MJBizDaily detailing Weedmaps' revenue growth drivers can be read at the link below: https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-firm-weedmaps-aims-for-175-percent-revenue-growth/