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Investment Analysis and Valuation of the Cannabis Industry

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Canopy USA! – UPDATED

Canopy USA! – UPDATED

Canopy Growth announced a series deals and new share structures to enable Canopy to acquire its US cannabis targets (Wana, Jetty, Acreage, and possibly some of Terrascend) by September 2023. Canopy stock is up 43% on the news and Constellation is up 4%. What are the...

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EBITDA & Leverage – Higher Than You Think

EBITDA & Leverage – Higher Than You Think

As valuations and liquidity have declined since the first quarter 2021 (when the industry raised over $3 billion in equity), debt has become a go-to source of financing. What is the leverage in cannabis? It may be higher than you think. There are also debates on if...

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Weedmaps – more unlicensed clients?

Weedmaps – more unlicensed clients?

Weedmaps is again in the news for servicing unlicensed operators in southern California, this time with delivery apps that either do not have a license, or are illegally renting someone else’s license. See this article by veteran reporter John Schroyer at MJBizDaily...

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ParentCo: Less Dilution offset by Signaling

ParentCo: Less Dilution offset by Signaling

This is a follow-up to the January 16, 2022 article analyzing the contractually mandated dilution due to existing contracts at the Parent Company, which noted the potential signaling by the recipients. The 1Q22 10Q answers that question:

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Agrify: Proxy Insights & Customer insights

Agrify: Proxy Insights & Customer insights

Agrify’s 2021 Proxy came out this morning, and there is more information regarding the ownership of the largest customer (as detailed in this post on 4/1/21), as well as the share authorization. This also includes the takeaways from Benzinga, insights into the new...

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Agrify’s Biggest Customer is a What?

Agrify’s Biggest Customer is a What?

Agrify’s 2021 10K came out last night, and there is a surprising new disclosure regarding customer concentration. We expect this to impact the way investors think about the valuation of the company going forward. This post been UPDATED on 4/4/2022 with additional...

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Cresco-Columbia Care Merger & Earnings

Cresco-Columbia Care Merger & Earnings

Cresco Labs (CRLBF) announced a stock-swap merger with Columbia Care (CCHWF) on the day of its 4Q21 earnings, and Columbia Care gave disappointing guidance the next day. Our analysis of the deal, the quarterly reports, and the comments regarding asset sales and market...

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Agrify: Implications of the Senior Secured Note

Agrify: Implications of the Senior Secured Note

Agrify announced that it borrowed $65 million under a new $135 million senior secured note, and yet the stock dropped 25% shortly after the announcement. Why did the stock drop? Why did they borrow $65 million when they already had $100 million of cash on hand? What...

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Weedmaps 4Q21: Reinvesting Most of the EBITDA

Weedmaps 4Q21: Reinvesting Most of the EBITDA

Weedmaps reported 4Q21 earnings (presentation) and updated guidance for 2022; revenue beat the reduced expectations of 3Q21, revenue guidance for 2022 was reiterated, while profitability guidance was significantly lower than expected as the company increases...

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Agrify Signs Largest Deal to-date with Gold Leaf

Agrify Signs Largest Deal to-date with Gold Leaf

Agrify announced the company's largest Total Turn Key (TTK) deal to-date, and this deal comes a few weeks after a short-report questioned the integrity of the company's customer relationships, pressuring the share price of the stock.  Premium members can read our...

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Cannabis SPAC Analysis – November 2021

Cannabis SPAC Analysis – November 2021

On October 19, 2019, Mike Regan presented on SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Corps) at the MJBizCon Finance Forum. The presentation walked through: Key risks to investing in SPACs How to invest across the SPAC lifecycle process The players and incentives during the...

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The Bear Case(s) on Cannabis

The Bear Case(s) on Cannabis

As the publicly-traded cannabis stocks are currently about 50% off their February highs, and with a relatively simple long term bull case to understand, many people have been asking us: “what are the bear arguments for legal cannabis”?When investing, someone is always...

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How Much Trulieve Can Harvest Founders Sell Now?

How Much Trulieve Can Harvest Founders Sell Now?

We learned this week that Harvest founders Steve White and Jason Vedadi (who left the company last year) own a total of 6.5 million shares of Trulieve worth $184 million as of October 4. How much is locked up, how much could be sold immediately, and when does the rest...

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