Company Profiles
Investment Analysis and Valuation of the Cannabis Industry
The Latest Company Profiles
What is ParentCo Cash / Share? The problem of guaranteed dilution
As a friendly reminder that per page 35 of the September 30, 2021 report, 33 million ParentCo shares will unlock on January 28, 2022. As the stock sits at $1.16, and with $207 million in cash and a reported 97 million shares outstanding, it appears the stock is...
Agrify Signs Largest Deal to-date with Gold Leaf
Agrify announced the company's largest Total Turn Key (TTK) deal to-date, and this deal comes a few weeks after a short-report questioned the integrity of the company's customer relationships, pressuring the share price of the stock. Premium members can read our...
What’s left of Curaleaf’s $425m new debt after refis?
Since this was originally published, Curaleaf upsized the deal by another $50 million, so add simplistically $50 million to all figures below. Curaleaf just raised $425 million of notes due 2026 at 8%; the size and access to capital is impressive in itself. The stated...
Schwazze, A Refined Strategy & New Acquisitions Presents an Opportunity for Institutional Investors
Schwazze Shifts Strategy and Grows via M&A As we have noted in the past, Schwazze is a Colorado consolidation story run by Justin Dye who previously consolidated Albertsons and Safeway at Cerebus. The company acquired the highly profitable Star Buds chain, and it...
Cannabis SPAC Analysis – November 2021
On October 19, 2019, Mike Regan presented on SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Corps) at the MJBizCon Finance Forum. The presentation walked through: Key risks to investing in SPACs How to invest across the SPAC lifecycle process The players and incentives during the...
Weedmaps cuts guidance; Where will margins stabilize?
MAPS guided significantly below prior guidance for 4Q21 and 2022, blaming softness on a demand shift to the illicit market and slower than expected license issuances. Our more detailed review and updated model for Premium Members can be found below. While the...
UPDATED Canopy-Wana & Cronos-Pharmacann Options: Smart for Sellers, what do Canadian LPs get?
Canopy is paying $297.5M for the right to buy Wana Brands when it “Federally permissible”, and Cronos paid $110.4 million for the right to buy 10.5% of Pharmacann when legal. What exactly are they getting, why are they buying, and why is it smart for Wana and...
How Much Trulieve Can Harvest Founders Sell Now?
We learned this week that Harvest founders Steve White and Jason Vedadi (who left the company last year) own a total of 6.5 million shares of Trulieve worth $184 million as of October 4. How much is locked up, how much could be sold immediately, and when does the rest...
RIV Capital, A Well Capitalized Shell for Private US Operators
RIV Capital (OTC:CNPOF, CSE:RIV) is is a public held investment fund with multiple near-term catalysts and a compelling valuation. Premium Members (sign up here) can read about this opportunity, with both bull and bear cases, valuation, and download a working model...
Glass House Brands: A De-Risked Opportunity to Invest in Scaled Production
Glass House Brands is a SPAC that has traded down to $5.00 on funding and pricing concerns, but they recently closed on the acquisition of the 5.5 million square foot Camarillo greenhouse in Ventura California. We think this is a very interesting opportunity for a...
Brief Thoughts on JT Burnette/Trulieve and the Weekly Florida Insights
The weekly Florida review includes a working model with price checks of every operator’s flower, pre-roll, vape, edibles, and concentrate products, the weekly discounting trends, market share analysis, and all OMMU data. This review is based on the August 15, 2021...
Weedmaps, Q2 Review & Updated Model
Premium members can read our analysis on the Q2 2021 results from WM Technology, formerly known as Weedmaps. This article also includes an updated working model with capital structure, valuation, client counts, and more.Weedmaps reported 2Q21 and the results were...
MAPS: Cannabis exposure for Tech/Growth Investors via a high-margin cash-generating pricing power story
Free Members can read actionable insights from a re-initiation on WM Technology, including a company overview with catalysts, valuation, value proposition, and more. Premium members have access to a detailed model with financials, guidance, valuation, client counts,...
ParentCo PIPE in Glass House Terminated
ParentCo's $50 million investment in Glass House, which included a biomass purchase offtake agreement and cross-retail agreement, was "terminated by both parties". Premium Member can read our take on this below, following up on our reports on the Parent Co from May 18...
Target Valuations & Actionable Insights in Weedmaps’ 1Q21
Premium Members can read actionable insights from Weedmaps’ 1Q21 results, our take on valuation and targets, and download a quarterly model below. This analysis follows up on our previous reports on Weedmaps / Silver Spike Acquisition Corp (SSPK) from May 10 for...
Harvest: The Not-So-Obvious reasons CEO White is Selling to Trulieve
This was previsouly exclusive to Premium Members until August 8, 2021, when it was published to Free Members. Why is Harvest selling to Trulieve? Or more accurately, why is CEO Steve White selling to Trulieve, since his is the only vote that matters given that his...
Trulieve-Harvest: A Big Deal for them, Not the Rest of the Industry
This was previsouly exclusive to Premium Members until August 8, 2021, when it was published to Free Members. We think the deal is transformative for Trulieve and Harvest and their major shareholders, but it means little for the rest of the industry, and the focus on...
The Parent Co 1Q21 Earnings: What you need to know
The Parent Co reported Q1 2021 earnings, and here’s what you need to know. We had expected the company to reset their aggressive guidance to the downside while using organic integration and M&A to prove the incremental margin opportunity of their “house of brands”...
Weedmaps, An Update to the Illicit Retailer Listings
This article provides an updated model and commentary to our January 27, 2021 analysis of Weedmaps (linked here), specifically the risk from unlicensed illicit market clients in the revenue mix operating under the “CBD Only” moniker. It was published to Free Members...
The Parent Company – A compelling opportunity, minimized by overpromise and dilution.
This article was first published to Premium Members Only, and became available to Free Members on July 21, 2021. The model download remains Premium Member Only. This report includes detailed financial and operational analysis, and a working model. The model includes...
Dutchie’s Consolidating Retail Software – How this affects SSPK, KERN, HLIX, and others.
This article includes market share data across the retail software stack, an analysis of data value, key strategies of top players, and the impact of new capital and consolidation on the sector's public and private companies. Last week, cannabis retail technology...
Curaleaf Enters Europe & 4Q2020 Earnings Review
Curaleaf reported their Q4 2020 and FY2020 earnings after the bell yesterday. As of late/early Wednesday, there is still no MD&A filing, so all data is from their press release and conference call. What you need to know: Ahead of earnings, Curaleaf announced the...
Weedmaps S4 Update: Unlicensed Risks, CBD Upside, New Model
Updated analysis and Excel model looking into additional risks from the January 19 S4 filing.
Weedmaps / SSPK – Cannabis Exposure for Tech/Growth Investors
With Excel Model: We think Weedmaps will be what tech and traditional investors new to the cannabis industry have been looking for a cannabis investment given that it has the best characteristics of both tech, growth, and cannabis exposure without actually trafficking in cannabis.