Comp Tables

Investment Analysis and Valuation of the Cannabis Industry

Your Comps Are Wrong: Why and How to Use Comp Tables - Click to Toggle

Why do we think comp tables are so important?

They are the key tool in understanding investment opportunities and risks in an industry.

And how can you manage a portfolio with wrong data?

provide a menu of available public investment choices for purchase or sale
show the range of valuations of the choices, showing discrepancies that may or may not converge in the future. Public valuations also inform private company valuations and acquisition pricing
show the size and leverage of the public options
show the range of operating margins and opportunities for margin expansion or compression
show the cost of capital for companies and the industry, which can be applied to similar companies in the private market either raising new capital or deciding whether to sell to another company
on the second page, the stock price performance shows what is moving up and down, helps isolate specific performance vs peers and the broader market

Sardines & Sentiment

by Mike and Colin | Dec 9, 2021

Cannabis stocks, like most stocks, are behaving like trading sardines. I’ll let page 18 of Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety explain the parable: There is an old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters...

Avoiding the Value Trap: Catalysts for 3Q21 & 2022

by Mike and Colin | Nov 3, 2021

Cannabis stocks cannot catch a bid. As the small-cap index IWM rose 3% in October, the average US cannabis stock declined 13%, the Ancillary operators declined 7%, and the Canadian LPs declined 9%. A heatmap of stock performance can be downloaded hereThe US operators...

EBIDA: EBITDA adjusted for 280E Taxes

by Mike and Colin | Oct 15, 2021

In honor of MJBizCon and MJUnpacked in Vegas this week, we are providing the multiples from our dynamic in-the-money only comp table adjusted for all announced deals here.As always our Premium Members can download the full Premium comp table,...

US cannabis trading volume levels after first-quarter spike

by Mike and Colin | Sep 8, 2021

Average daily trading volumes for U.S. cannabis operators appear to be bottoming out at about $80 million per day, a level not seen since October 2020. Trading volumes have declined 75% since peaking in February. Despite the drop, the volume remains nearly triple the...

2Q21 Fundamentals Disconnected from Stock Moves

by Mike and Colin | Aug 18, 2021

There is a disconnect between fundamental performance and stock performance for U.S. cannabis companies, resulting in compressing valuations for those operations. But multiples on 2022 are nearing past trough levels. Strong second quarter earnings have not yet driven...

The CME & Cannabis? Valuation review into 2Q21

by Mike and Colin | Aug 11, 2021

8th Revolution and the CME? In early June, we were interviewed by 8th Revolution’s Kellan Finney and Bryan Fields, where we discussed the California cultivation supply, sustainability and scalability of margins, Weedmap’s investment thesis and narrative, and Cresco...

Estimates Up and Stocks Down into 2Q21 Earnings Season

by Mike and Colin | Jul 21, 2021

As we enter 2Q21 earnings season, we ask, “what has happened with the stocks prices and estimates since 1Q21”? The estimates for the US-Focused operators have increased, while the stock prices themselves have declined, compressing valuation multiples by about 1 turn....

Uplisting to NASDAQ = +10-25X the Liquidity of OTC

by Mike and Colin | Jul 7, 2021

Though access to capital for public cannabis companies improved in early 2021, liquidity remains low for the U.S. plant-touching operators in comparison to the Canadian licensed producers. U.S. operators have access only to lower-volume exchanges, such as the Canadian...

Cannabis Stocks & Valuations Drop Amidst Fed Volatility – Comp Table June 21, 2021

by Mike and Colin | Jun 22, 2021

Cannabis stocks have taken a beating since our last comp table on June 10. The average US stock has declined 5%, while the average Canadian stock declined 9% since June 10. The Canadian sales estimates also declined about 2%, while the US estimates actually increased...

Cannabis Can Offset Inflation & Comp Table June 10

by Mike and Colin | Jun 11, 2021

In the days after the Great Recession (2008-09), the U.S. government implemented a policy of quantitative easing to boost the recovery. In 2010, after the first round of QE, Mike asked Warren Buffett about his views on inflation and investing. The Oracle of Omaha...

Nutrient Consolidation & Return of Meme Moves & Volumes? Comp Table May 28, 2021

by Mike and Colin | May 31, 2021

Early signs of consolidation in cannabis nutrients? Over 4,000 years ago, early farmers noticed enhanced crop growth in areas of manure accumulation where animals gathered, and the first fertilizer application practices were born. The Babylonians, Egyptians, and...

Cultivation En Vogue, Thoughts on Vertical Integration & Comp Tables Priced 5/14/21 & 5/17/2021

by Mike and Colin | May 19, 2021

Premium Members can download our pro forma in-the-money diluted comp tables below. Cultivation is in vogue At this point in the industry, most operators need to own most pieces of the supply chain because there isn't a consistent, robust, and reliable supply...

Comp Table May 7 & May 10 PF Trulieve-Harvest & Post VFF-CURLF Print

by Mike and Colin | May 10, 2021

Premium Members can download the comp tables priced as of May 7 and May 10th, 2021, below. These have been updated for the Trulieve-Harvest merger, and assume that the $110m Harvest Converts get refinanced by Trulieve as normal debt. The May 10, 2021 table is also...

Comp Table April 30, 2021 – Now With Cashless Exercise

by Mike and Colin | May 4, 2021

Comp Table updated for April 30, 2021 - Now using cashless exercises for warrants and options Premium members can download a PDF of our cannabis comp table, updated on April 30, 2021 below. Cannabis stocks were weak in March after peaking in...

Comp Table April 29, 2021, for Premium Members Only: Now with share counts, Cash On Hand, & Pro Forma Net Debt

by Mike and Colin | Apr 30, 2021

Premium Members can download the detailed comp table priced as of April 29, 2021, at the button below. Like the previous Free Member ones, this includes only in-the-money warrants and options, counts converts as either shares if in the money or face value if out the...

Alcohol or Yoga Pants? Rising Rates Pressure Stocks, Comp Tables 3/5/21

by Mike and Colin | Mar 8, 2021

Cannabis stocks are being driven by market dynamics and not fundamentals, creating opportunities for long term investors that can stomach the volatility. The rising correlations also present hedging opportunities: are you nervous about valuations after 4X gains in...

Risk Off February? Comp Tables 2/26/2021

by Mike and Colin | Mar 1, 2021

For the month of February cannabis stocks peaked then declined. The stocks ended up 17% for the US operators and 23% for the Canadian operators, and both groups have declined since peaking around February 8-10 (-13% for US and -26% for Canadian) - when we noted that...

Focus on the Embers, not the Flames: Comp Tables 2/19/2021

by Mike and Colin | Feb 22, 2021

If the past few months of cannabis policy wins were the spark to light investor interest in the industry, the involvement of Reddit-based speculation in the past weeks was the gasoline to this fire. But when the gasoline runs out, the fire must burn from an enduring...

Pigs get Slaughtered: Sundial Trades more than Facebook?!?

by Mike and Colin | Feb 11, 2021

There is an old saying that "bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered". If you're fat on meme stocks, congratulations, you better get out now before you're bacon. Tilray has increased 148% since last Friday, giving the pro forma Tilray-Aphria...

Party Like it’s 1999 – or 2004?: Comp Tables 2/5/2021

by Mike Regan | Feb 8, 2021

How do US cannabis operator valuations look when compared to other industries?

Cannabis Hits The Bid, GME & Systemic Risk?: Comp Tables Jan 29, 2021

by Mike and Colin | Feb 1, 2021

Cannabis stocks rallied in January on legislative optimism, then paused following capital issuance, and perhaps an unrelated short squeeze. Will systemic risk or tough comps continue to pressure them? For the month of January, cannabis stocks...

Capital Drought Over: Comp Tables Priced January 14, 2021

by Mike and Colin | Jan 15, 2021

The capital drought in cannabis appears to be over. The past week saw furious rallies and a total of $1 billion capital raised, as operators know they will need cash over the long term. The opportunity is a multidecade one, and the market is excited about the...

Your Comps Are Wrong: Why and How to Use Comp Tables

by Mike Regan | Jan 14, 2021

Why comp tables are key investment tools and why most tables for cannabis are wrong

Blue Wave Nonsensically Drives Canada AGAIN – Comp Table for Jan 6, 2021

by Mike Regan | Jan 7, 2021

Canadian cannabis operators outperform US operators despite no fundamental benefit from US legal changes

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